Economic markets let you trade directly on the data that moves the entire financial world — central-bank decisions, inflation prints, the jobs report, growth and recession odds. They are a favourite for two reasons: the outcomes are objective and scheduled, and they let you express — or hedge — a macro view without trading the underlying assets.
This guide covers what is on offer in the economic category, where to trade it, how these markets settle on official data, and how to trade around the release calendar.
What you can trade
- Fed rate decisions — whether the FOMC hikes, holds or cuts, and by how much, at a given meeting.
- Inflation — whether CPI or PCE lands in a particular range for a month.
- Jobs — nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate against thresholds.
- Growth — GDP outcomes and whether a recession is declared by a date.
- Other releases — a range of scheduled indicators priced as above/below contracts.
Where to trade economic markets
Any of the regulated platforms below is a solid home for this category; our full ranking is in the linked roundup.
Kalshi Editor's pick
The clear leader for economic markets — Fed decisions, inflation, jobs and growth, with transparent resolution tied to official data releases.
Polymarket Crypto
Lists a selection of macro and economic markets with deep liquidity, settled on-chain, for crypto-native traders.
Robinhood Low fees
Low-fee access to the headline economic markets inside a familiar brokerage app.
Trade by data release
Jump to a guide for the release you trade, each with its markets, calendar and best platforms:
How these markets resolve
As with every prediction market, the price is a probability and each contract settles at $1 or $0. What makes economic markets distinctive is that resolution is tied to official data releases — the FOMC statement, the BLS inflation and jobs reports, the BEA’s GDP figures — published at scheduled times. That objectivity removes much of the resolution ambiguity that other categories can carry: when the print lands, the market settles.
Because of that, activity clusters around the economic calendar. Liquidity and price movement spike in the run-up to a Fed meeting or a CPI release and settle quickly afterwards.
Tips for trading economic markets
- Trade the calendar. Know the FOMC, CPI and jobs-report dates; that is when these markets come alive.
- Lean on the objectivity. Resolution is a published number, so focus your edge on forecasting the data, not on parsing ambiguous rules.
- Use them as a hedge. A position that pays off if the Fed surprises can offset risk elsewhere in your portfolio.
- Mind the consensus. Prices already reflect the market consensus; you profit by being right where the crowd is wrong.
Economic markets are among the most beginner-friendly because their resolution is unambiguous. New to the mechanics? Start with how prediction markets work.
More economics guides
Focused guides for specific economics markets, each with the best platforms and how they settle:
Frequently asked questions
Where can I trade Fed and inflation markets?
Kalshi is the clear leader for economic markets — rate decisions, inflation, jobs and growth — with Polymarket and Robinhood offering a selection of the headline markets. See our platform reviews for the detail.
How do economic markets resolve?
They settle on official data releases — the FOMC statement, BLS inflation and jobs reports, and BEA GDP figures — at scheduled times. When the number is published, the contract resolves to $1 or $0.
When do these markets settle?
On the release date for the relevant indicator. Activity and liquidity concentrate in the days before a Fed meeting or a CPI or jobs report, then resolve shortly after the data lands.
Are economic markets a good way to hedge?
Many traders use them that way — for example, a contract that pays off on a surprise rate move can offset risk elsewhere. As always, they carry risk of loss and are not financial advice.