Learn the fundamentals
Understand prediction markets from the ground up
Start here if event contracts are new to you. These guides build from the core idea — that a price is a probability — to how the markets actually function under the hood.
What are prediction markets?
The core concept, why prices equal probabilities, what you can trade on, and whether it’s legal. The essential first read.
How prediction markets work
Order books, market and limit orders, spread and slippage, fees, settlement and how funds are held.
Glossary of terms
Every term you’ll meet — spread, slippage, resolution, maker rebate and more — defined in plain English.
Getting started
From choosing a platform to placing and settling your first trade, in five practical steps.
Best platforms 2026
Independent rankings of Kalshi, Polymarket, FanDuel Predicts and more, with full reviews.
Trading strategies
Bankroll discipline, position sizing, finding mispriced markets and avoiding costly mistakes.
Go deeper
Concepts & mechanics, explained
Short, focused guides to the ideas and machinery behind every trade.
Why a price equals a probability
The single idea everything rests on: why a contract at 62¢ means the market thinks the event is about 62% likely.
Are prediction markets accurate?
The forecasting track record, why aggregating money into probabilities works, and where these markets fall short.
Prediction markets vs polls
What each measures, why a money-backed probability differs from a poll snapshot, and when to trust which.
How to read an order book
Bids, asks, the spread and depth — and what they tell you about a market’s liquidity before you trade.
Market vs limit orders
When to take the price the market offers, and when to set your own and wait — plus maker vs taker fees.
Spread & slippage
The two hidden costs of trading that never appear on a fee schedule, and how to keep them small.
How markets resolve & settle
What happens when the event occurs, why resolution criteria matter, and how settlement pays out.
Going further
Background & deeper reading
The ideas, history and finer mechanics behind prediction markets.
A short history
From 19th-century election betting to the Iowa experiment, Intrade and today’s regulated boom.
The wisdom of crowds
Why a diverse group outguesses the experts, how markets harness it, and when the crowd gets it wrong.
Scalar & range markets
Trading a number rather than a Yes or No — temperature, price and vote-share ranges, and how they price.
Maker vs taker
How providing versus taking liquidity changes your fees — and how to trade as a maker to pay less.
Selling before resolution
You don’t have to hold to settlement. When and why to exit a trade early, and how to make the call.
Sources & disputes
How markets decide outcomes, how on-chain oracles work, and what happens when a resolution is challenged.
Are they gambling?
The most common question newcomers ask. The regulatory view, the features they share with betting, and how they genuinely differ.
vs the stock market
Both are markets where prices reflect a crowd’s view — but what you own and how it pays out could hardly be more different.
The maths
Pricing & probability
The small set of calculations behind every trade — and the tools that do them for you.
Implied probability
How a contract price and any odds format convert into a percentage chance — and the vig adjustment that trips people up.
Expected value (EV)
The number that separates traders from gamblers: how to calculate it, and why positive-EV prices win over time.
The vig (margin)
The hidden cut in betting odds, why two sides sum above 100%, and how exchange fees change the maths.
No-vig fair odds
Strip the margin out to find the market’s true probability — and compare sportsbook lines to event contracts.
Trade what you follow
Explore by category
The same exchanges price elections, sports, the economy, crypto and culture. Jump to the category breakdown.
A simple path through the basics
If you are brand new, read these in order. Start with what prediction markets are to understand the single idea everything rests on: that the price of a contract is the market’s estimate of how likely an event is. Then move to how the markets work for the mechanics — order books, spreads, fees and how a contract settles to $1 or $0. Keep the glossary open in a tab for any unfamiliar term.
Once the concepts click, the getting-started guide walks you through opening an account and placing a first trade, and our platform reviews help you choose where. There is no need to rush — the goal here is to understand what you are doing before you risk any money. When you want to go deeper, the strategies section covers bankroll discipline and finding mispriced markets, and the guide to whether prediction markets are legal in the US explains where you can trade.
Ready to make your first informed trade?
Compare the top regulated platforms side by side, or start with the fundamentals. Independent reviews, no paid placement, updated for 2026.
Independent · No platform pays for placement · 18+ only