A common misconception is that once you buy a contract you are locked in until the event is decided. In fact, on most platforms you can sell at the current price at any time — and knowing when to do so is one of the most valuable skills a trader can develop.
You can sell early
Buying a contract does not commit you to resolution. At any point before a market settles, you can usually sell your position back into the market at whatever price it is currently trading. You are simply exchanging the certain $1-or-$0 outcome that awaits at settlement for a known price today.
Why sell early
- Lock in a profit. If the price has moved toward your side, selling banks the gain rather than risking the outcome.
- Cut a loss. If the market is moving against you, selling limits the damage before settlement.
- Free up capital. Selling releases money tied up in a position so you can use it elsewhere.
- Avoid resolution risk. If a market’s settlement looks ambiguous, exiting sidesteps that uncertainty.
When it makes sense
The key comparison is between the current price and your own estimate of the true probability. If the market has risen above what you believe the outcome is really worth, the expected value of holding is now lower than the price you could sell at — so selling captures value. If you still think your side is underpriced, holding remains the better call. The decision is not about your entry price; it is about whether holding is worth more than selling right now.
How to decide
Treat every moment as a fresh expected-value decision: “given today’s price, is holding worth more than selling?” Resist anchoring on what you paid — that money is already spent, and the market does not care. Factor in the spread and any fees on the exit, since they eat into what you actually receive. And if you want to lock a result without fully exiting, a hedge is an alternative. To model the result of a sale, use the P&L calculator.
Frequently asked questions
Can I sell before a prediction market settles?
Yes. On most platforms you can sell your contracts at the current market price any time before resolution, exchanging the eventual $1-or-$0 outcome for a known price today.
Why would I sell early instead of holding?
To lock in a profit if the price has moved your way, to cut a loss if it is moving against you, to free up capital for other trades, or to avoid the risk of an ambiguous resolution.
When should I sell a position?
Compare the current price with your own estimate of the true probability. If the market has risen above what you think the outcome is worth, selling captures value; if you still see your side as underpriced, holding is better. Ignore your entry price in the decision.