Election markets dominate political trading every couple of years, but between them a quieter, year-round category keeps ticking: markets on how a president is doing and on what the government actually does. Approval-rating and policy markets let you take a position on the day-to-day business of Washington — from poll numbers to whether a bill becomes law — and they often carry the deepest political liquidity outside election season. They complement the election-focused 2026 midterms, House and Senate guides.
What you can trade
- Approval ratings — whether a president’s approval, in a named poll or average, is above or below a threshold by a set date.
- Legislation — whether a specific bill passes a chamber, or is signed into law, by a deadline.
- Government operations — shutdowns, debt-ceiling deadlines and continuing-resolution outcomes.
- Nominations and confirmations — whether a cabinet pick, judge or agency head is confirmed by the Senate.
- Courts and executive action — how a Supreme Court case resolves, or whether an executive order is issued or blocked.
- Policy and geopolitics — tariffs, sanctions, treaties and other dated policy outcomes.
Where to trade approval and policy markets
Any of the regulated platforms below is a solid home for this category; our full ranking is in the linked roundup.
Polymarket Crypto
The widest range of policy, legislative and geopolitical contracts, settled on-chain, often with the deepest liquidity outside election season.
Kalshi Editor's pick
The regulated US venue for approval-rating, economic-policy and government-operations markets, overseen by the CFTC.
Robinhood Low fees
Access to headline policy and approval contracts via Kalshi inside the app.
See the best platforms for politics →
How these markets resolve
Policy markets live and die on their resolution criteria, more than almost any other category. An approval market names the exact poll or average and the exact date it reads; a legislative market defines precisely what counts as “passed” and by when; a confirmation market specifies the vote. Because the wording carries so much weight, the first thing to do before trading one of these is to read the resolution rules in full — ambiguity over what a policy outcome actually means, or which source settles it, is the most common way traders get caught out. The resolution sources guide covers how disputes are handled.
How to approach them
These markets reward following the process, not the headlines. For approval markets, that means knowing exactly which survey the contract tracks and how noisy it tends to be — a single volatile poll can look like news when it is just sampling variation. For legislative and confirmation markets, it means understanding the mechanics that decide whether something can actually happen by the deadline: committee calendars, whip counts and the votes required. Treat each price as a probability and look for the gap between it and your own read of the process.
Trading tips
- Read the resolution first. The exact poll, deadline or vote defined in the rules matters more than the general topic.
- Mind the liquidity. Policy markets are usually thinner than marquee election markets, so watch spread and slippage.
- Know the calendar. Legislative and confirmation timelines drive these markets; a deadline that slips can swing a price.
- Separate signal from noise. One outlier poll or headline can move a thin market more than the underlying odds justify.
- Check availability. Political-market access varies by US state and platform.
Political-market availability varies by US state and platform — see whether these markets are available where you live, and trade responsibly.
Related market guides
Trade adjacent categories with the same exchange account:
Frequently asked questions
What are policy prediction markets?
Markets on the actions and standing of government rather than election outcomes: presidential approval thresholds, whether a bill passes or is signed, shutdowns and debt-ceiling deadlines, cabinet and judicial confirmations, Supreme Court rulings, and policy events such as tariffs or sanctions.
Can you trade presidential approval ratings?
Yes. Approval markets let you take a position on whether a president’s approval — in a specific named poll or average — is above or below a threshold by a given date. The exact survey and date named in the resolution rules are what the contract settles on, so read them carefully.
Why do resolution rules matter so much for policy markets?
Because policy outcomes are easy to word ambiguously. Whether a bill counts as “passed,” which poll an approval market reads, or which source settles a dispute all determine the result. Reading the full resolution criteria before trading is the single most important habit in this category.