Every two years the US midterms hand prediction markets their marquee event, and 2026 is a big one. On 3 November 2026, voters decide all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 Senate seats and 36 governorships, plus a mass of state and local offices — the results that seat the 120th Congress in January 2027. For traders that means a dense calendar of contracts running from the spring primaries right through election night. This guide maps what is tradeable and how to approach it; the deeper dives for each chamber sit one click away.
What’s on the ballot
- The House — all 435 seats. Republicans hold a narrow majority, and Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to flip it. Full detail in our House control guide.
- The Senate — 35 seats (33 regular plus special elections in Ohio and Florida). Republicans defend the majority; Democrats need a net gain of four to take control. See Senate & congressional control.
- Governors — 36 states, with a cluster of genuine toss-ups. Covered in the governor race markets guide.
- Everything downballot — attorneys general, secretaries of state and ballot measures, some of which appear as contracts on the larger platforms.
Where to trade 2026 election markets
Any of the regulated platforms below is a solid home for this category; our full ranking is in the linked roundup.
Polymarket Crypto
The highest-volume venue for 2026 balance-of-power and individual-race markets, settled on-chain — millions have traded on the House and Senate control markets alone.
Kalshi Editor's pick
The regulated US home for 2026 election contracts: chamber control, seat counts and per-state races, overseen by the CFTC.
Robinhood Low fees
Straightforward access to the headline 2026 election markets, routed through Kalshi inside the app.
See the best platforms for politics →
Balance-of-power markets
The signature midterm contracts are the balance-of-power markets, which trade the combined outcome across chambers rather than a single race. The headline questions are whether either party wins a trifecta (the House, the Senate and the White House aligned) or whether Washington stays divided. As of mid-2026, forecasters and markets broadly favour Democrats to win the House while Republicans are favoured to hold the Senate — the classic recipe for divided government — but both are live, and the “Democrats sweep both chambers” outcome carries real weight when the national environment moves. Because these markets aggregate hundreds of races, their prices read as probabilities and move more smoothly than any one contest.
The midterm dynamic
One structural fact shapes every 2026 market: the president’s party almost always loses ground at the midterms. Since the Second World War the president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms, Senate seats in 13 of 20, and governorships in 16 of 20. With Republicans holding the White House, that history is a tailwind for Democrats — reinforced through the first half of 2026 by a generic-ballot lead and soft presidential approval. Cutting the other way is mid-cycle redistricting: new congressional maps in states including Missouri, Florida, Texas and Ohio reshaped dozens of districts during 2025–2026, mostly to Republican benefit, which is why the House is competitive rather than a Democratic lock. Trading the midterms well means weighing that national tide against the map.
Key dates and resolution
The cycle has a rhythm worth trading around. Primaries run through the spring and summer, each one resolving nomination markets and reshaping the general-election contracts — the Texas Senate runoff, in which Ken Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn, is a good example of a primary that moved the general-election picture. Election day is 3 November 2026, when most control and race markets resolve, though close contests and recounts can delay settlement. Major platforms resolve these markets on a consensus of established outlets such as the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC, falling back to official certification if the calls are not clear. Always read the exact resolution rules before you trade.
Election-market availability varies by US state and platform, and rules can change during a live cycle. Confirm the position where you live in our state-by-state guide, and trade responsibly.
Related market guides
Trade adjacent categories with the same exchange account:
Frequently asked questions
What can you trade on the 2026 midterms?
Chamber control (which party wins the House and the Senate), balance-of-power and trifecta markets, seat-count ranges, individual Senate, House and governor races, primary nominations, and some downballot and ballot-measure contracts. The House, Senate and governor guides break each down.
Who is favoured in the 2026 midterms?
As of mid-2026, forecasters and markets broadly favour Democrats to win the House while Republicans are favoured to hold the Senate — pointing toward divided government — but both chambers remain competitive and the picture shifts with the national environment. Prices are probabilities, not predictions.
When do 2026 election markets resolve?
Most resolve after election day on 3 November 2026, once major outlets such as the AP, Fox News and NBC call the relevant races; ambiguous or recounted contests can delay settlement to official certification. Primary markets resolve as each nomination is decided through the spring and summer.