Political markets are where prediction markets earned their reputation. By letting thousands of traders put money behind their views on elections and policy, they produce a single, constantly updating probability — one that has often tracked outcomes more closely than commentary or any individual poll. After a 2024 federal court ruling and a more permissive stance from the CFTC through 2025, regulated election markets are now firmly part of the US landscape.
This guide covers what you can actually trade in the political category, where to trade it, how these markets settle, and a few things worth knowing before you put money down.
What you can trade
The political category is broad. The most active markets include:
- Election winners — presidential, Senate, House, gubernatorial and primary races, priced as the probability of each candidate or party winning.
- Control of Congress — which party holds the House or Senate after an election.
- Party nominations — who a party’s candidate will be, often traded long before the race itself.
- Approval and polling thresholds — whether an approval rating or poll number is above or below a level by a given date.
- Legislation and policy — whether a specific bill, confirmation or policy action happens within a window; the approval & policy markets guide covers these in full.
- Geopolitical events — outcomes of international elections and major world events.
Where to trade political markets
Any of the regulated platforms below is a solid home for this category; our full ranking is in the linked roundup.
Kalshi Editor's pick
The deepest slate of regulated US political and policy markets — elections, control of Congress, approval and economic policy, all under CFTC oversight.
Polymarket Crypto
The largest political volume in the world. If you want the tightest price on a major race, the crowd here is the biggest — though it is crypto-based.
Robinhood Low fees
Low-fee access to the headline races inside a familiar app, ideal for trading the big political events without opening a new account.
See the best platforms for politics →
Trade by race
Jump to a focused guide, each with its markets and best platforms:
How these markets price and resolve
Every contract trades between 1¢ and 99¢, and the price is the market’s estimate of probability: a candidate at 58¢ implies a 58% chance. Each contract settles at $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, usually on official results or certification. The single most important habit in political trading is to read the resolution criteria before you trade — exactly what counts as a win, which source decides, and what happens in a recount or dispute. Two markets that look identical can resolve differently.
Liquidity concentrates around the biggest races, so prices on flagship markets are tight and meaningful, while niche or long-dated markets can be thin and move sharply on small orders.
Tips for trading political markets
- Expect news-driven moves. Polls, debates and events reprice markets quickly; settle on your view before the noise.
- Compare venues. The same race can trade at slightly different prices on a regulated US venue versus a global crypto venue — take the better price.
- Mind liquidity. A tempting longshot at 3¢ is only worth it if you can actually exit; thin markets can trap you.
- A price is not a promise. A 90% market still loses one time in ten. Size positions so a surprise does not hurt.
Availability of political and election markets varies by US state and is still evolving — see are prediction markets legal? These are real-money contracts with real risk; trade responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Where can I trade election markets?
Kalshi offers the deepest regulated US political markets; Polymarket has the largest political volume globally but is crypto-based; and Robinhood gives low-fee access to the headline races. See our best-for-politics roundup for the full ranking.
Is trading election markets legal in the US?
Trading election event contracts on CFTC-regulated platforms became possible after Kalshi’s 2024 court victory, and such markets now operate under federal oversight. Availability still varies by state — check our legality guide.
How do political markets settle?
Each contract resolves to $1 or $0 based on the official outcome, typically on certified results. Always read a market’s resolution criteria first, as they define exactly what counts and which source decides.
Are prediction markets accurate for elections?
They aggregate many traders’ views into a live probability and have a strong forecasting record, but they are not infallible and can move sharply on news. Treat the price as a probability, not a certainty.