Most prediction markets are binary: a contract settles at $1 if an event happens and $0 if it does not. But many real questions are not yes-or-no — they are about how much. Scalar markets, also called range markets, answer those questions by letting the payout depend on where a number lands.
What a scalar market is
A scalar market is built around a numeric outcome between a floor and a ceiling. In its purest form the payout scales linearly with the result — the higher the number, the more the “higher” side is worth. In practice, most platforms implement the idea as a set of bracket contracts: separate binary markets for each range, such as a daily high temperature of 70–74°, 75–79°, 80–84° and so on. You trade the bracket you expect the number to fall into.
How they price
Each bracket behaves like an ordinary binary contract: its price is the probability that the number lands in that range. Taken together, the brackets form a picture of the market’s expected outcome — a distribution rather than a single yes-or-no. As with any dated market, the prices tighten as more information arrives and the deadline nears.
Common examples
- Temperature — brackets for the daily high in a city, a staple of weather markets.
- Asset prices — ranges for where Bitcoin or another asset closes by a date.
- Economic figures — bands for an inflation or jobs number around consensus.
- Vote share — ranges for a candidate’s percentage in an election.
Scalar vs binary
A binary market asks “will X happen?” A scalar market asks “what value will X take?” — giving you finer-grained exposure to the exact outcome rather than a single threshold. The trade-off is that any one bracket is less likely to hit than a broad yes-or-no, so prices in the tails can be low. The mechanics are otherwise identical, and the same habits apply: read the resolution criteria and mind liquidity in the thinner brackets. For the underlying settlement process, see how markets resolve.
Frequently asked questions
What is a scalar market?
A scalar or range market is one where the outcome is a number between a floor and a ceiling, rather than a simple yes or no. The payout depends on where that number lands, giving you exposure to the exact value instead of a single threshold.
How do bracket markets work?
Most platforms implement a scalar market as a set of binary bracket contracts, one for each range of the number, such as temperature bands or price ranges. Each bracket's price is the probability the number lands in that range, and you trade the bracket you expect.
What is the difference between scalar and binary markets?
A binary market answers whether an event happens (settling at $1 or $0), while a scalar market answers what value a number takes, across a range of outcomes. Scalar markets give finer-grained exposure but any single bracket is less likely to hit.