One of the most distinctive prediction-market categories is weather. Because temperature, rainfall and storms are measured objectively and published on a schedule, they make almost ideal contracts — there is little argument about what happened. Kalshi in particular has made weather a signature part of its lineup.
What you can trade
- Temperature — whether the daily high in a given city clears a threshold on a date.
- Precipitation — rain or snowfall above a stated level.
- Storms — whether a named storm or hurricane forms or makes landfall.
- Climate records — longer-run markers such as the hottest year on record.
Where to trade weather markets
Any of the regulated platforms below is a solid home for this category; our full ranking is in the linked roundup.
Kalshi Editor's pick
The defining venue for weather and temperature markets, resolved on official meteorological data.
Polymarket Crypto
On-chain markets on climate records and major weather events.
Robinhood Low fees
Access to event contracts, routed through Kalshi.
How these markets price and resolve
The price is a probability and each contract settles at $1 or $0 against official meteorological data — typically the National Weather Service or equivalent readings. That makes resolution about as clean and objective as it gets: when the reading is published, the market settles. Most temperature markets are short-dated, resolving within days.
Tips for trading weather markets
- Forecasts drive the price — the market tracks the evolving forecast, tightening as the date nears.
- Short horizons — many contracts resolve within a day or two, so capital turns over quickly.
- Objective resolution — settlement is on a published reading, so there is little ambiguity.
- A Kalshi specialty — the deepest and broadest weather markets are found there.
Because settlement is tied to official, published readings, weather markets carry almost none of the resolution ambiguity that softer categories can have.
More weather guides
Focused guides for specific weather markets, each with the best platforms and how they settle:
Frequently asked questions
Where can I trade weather prediction markets?
Kalshi is the defining venue for weather and temperature markets, resolved on official meteorological data. Polymarket offers on-chain markets on climate records and major events, and Robinhood provides access routed through Kalshi.
What weather markets can I trade?
Daily high-temperature thresholds for specific cities, precipitation levels, named-storm and hurricane markets, and longer-run climate records such as the hottest year.
How do weather markets resolve?
They settle at $1 or $0 against official meteorological readings, typically from the National Weather Service. Because the data is objective and published on a schedule, resolution is unusually clean.