Hurricane markets apply the prediction-market model to tropical forecasting. Backed by official meteorological data and a defined season, they settle on clear, published outcomes — how many named storms form, whether a specific storm makes landfall, or how active a season proves. These markets are a way to trade a forecast, not to wish for an outcome, and the human stakes deserve respect. Here is how the category works.
What you can trade
- Named-storm count — whether the season produces more or fewer than a stated number of named storms.
- Hurricane and major-hurricane counts — the number reaching hurricane or major (Category 3+) strength.
- Landfall — whether a specific storm makes landfall in a named area, or at a given category.
- Season activity — aggregate measures of how active the overall season is versus a benchmark.
Where to trade hurricane markets
Any of the regulated platforms below is a solid home for this category; our full ranking is in the linked roundup.
Kalshi Editor's pick
Regulated markets on named storms and hurricane-season activity, settled on official meteorological data.
Polymarket Crypto
Liquid markets on major-storm outcomes and season counts, settled on-chain.
How hurricane markets settle
Contracts resolve on official data from the relevant meteorological authority (such as the National Hurricane Center), at $1 or $0 depending on whether the defined condition was met. The details that matter are the exact metric, the named area or storm, the category thresholds, and the cut-off date. Because the season has a fixed window, many markets settle only at its end.
Tips for trading hurricane markets
- Seasonal outlooks are signal, not certainty — pre-season forecasts set a baseline that the season can beat or miss.
- Definitions decide outcomes — what counts as landfall, and where, is written into the contract.
- Long-dated positions — season-total markets can sit open for months; mind the cost of holding.
- Trade responsibly — these markets involve real-world events with human consequences; keep perspective.
Availability varies by US state and is evolving — see are prediction markets legal? These are real-money contracts with real risk; trade responsibly and only stake what you can afford to lose.
Related market guides
Trade adjacent categories with the same exchange account:
Frequently asked questions
Where can I trade hurricane prediction markets?
Kalshi offers regulated markets on named storms and hurricane-season activity, and Polymarket lists some major-storm and season-count markets. Availability can vary, so check each platform.
What hurricane markets can I trade?
Named-storm counts, hurricane and major-hurricane counts, whether a specific storm makes landfall in a named area or at a given category, and overall season-activity measures.
How do hurricane markets settle?
On official data from the relevant meteorological authority, such as the National Hurricane Center, paying $1 or $0 depending on whether the defined condition was met. The exact metric, area and cut-off date are specified in the contract.