Weather is one of the more distinctive prediction-market categories, and temperature markets are its backbone. Because temperatures are measured precisely and reported by official agencies, they settle cleanly — there is little room for dispute. Kalshi in particular has made weather a signature category. Here is what you can trade and how to think about it.
What you can trade
- Daily high temperature — whether the high in a named city on a given day falls in a stated range.
- Monthly averages — whether a city’s average temperature for the month is above or below a level.
- Records and extremes — whether a record high or low is set, or a heat threshold is reached.
- Annual and climate markets — longer-dated contracts such as whether a year ranks among the warmest on record.
Where to trade temperature markets
Any of the regulated platforms below is a solid home for this category; our full ranking is in the linked roundup.
Kalshi Editor's pick
Weather is a Kalshi speciality: regulated daily and monthly temperature markets for major cities, settled on official data.
Polymarket Crypto
Liquid markets on temperature records and climate milestones, settled on-chain.
How temperature markets settle
These are among the cleanest markets to settle: a contract resolves on the official reading from a designated weather station or agency (for example the National Weather Service) for the named location and period. The key details are which station and which metric the contract uses, since readings can differ slightly across nearby sites. Short-dated daily markets are driven almost entirely by the forecast, so they reprice as forecasts update.
Tips for trading temperature markets
- Follow the forecast — near-term markets move with the official forecast, so the edge is in reading it well.
- Know the station — the exact reporting site matters when the outcome is close to a threshold.
- Uncertainty widens with time — a market days out is far less certain than one for tomorrow; price the spread.
- Ranges reward precision — temperature markets are often banded, so small forecast shifts change the fair price.
Availability varies by US state and is evolving — see are prediction markets legal? These are real-money contracts with real risk; trade responsibly and only stake what you can afford to lose.
Related market guides
Trade adjacent categories with the same exchange account:
Frequently asked questions
Where can I trade temperature prediction markets?
Kalshi has made weather a signature category, offering regulated daily and monthly temperature markets for major US cities. Polymarket lists some temperature-record and climate markets too.
What temperature markets can I trade?
Daily-high ranges for named cities, monthly-average thresholds, record highs and lows, and longer-dated annual or climate markets such as a year ranking among the warmest.
How do temperature markets settle?
On the official reading from a designated weather station or agency for the named location and period. The exact station and metric are specified in the contract, so read them when the outcome is close to a threshold.