On the first Friday of most months, the jobs report lands and markets lurch. Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) and the unemployment rate are among the most market-moving data releases there are — and among the hardest to forecast, which is exactly what makes the markets on them interesting. Here is how to trade them.
What you can trade
- Nonfarm payrolls — whether the headline jobs number comes in above or below a stated threshold.
- The unemployment rate — markets on the rate landing within a particular range.
- Wage growth — average hourly earnings above or below expectations.
- Ranges and bands — contracts covering bands of the payrolls figure rather than a single threshold.
Where to trade jobs-report markets
Any of the regulated platforms below is a solid home for this category; our full ranking is in the linked roundup.
Kalshi Editor's pick
The leading regulated venue for jobs and labour-market markets, settled on the BLS report.
Polymarket Crypto
On-chain markets on payrolls and the unemployment rate.
Robinhood Low fees
Event contracts in-app, with jobs markets routed through Kalshi.
The data calendar
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Employment Situation report monthly, usually on the first Friday, covering the prior month. Liquidity builds through the week and resolves the moment the report is published. Like inflation, the jobs number is a major input to Fed-rate expectations and a key signal for recession markets.
Tips for trading jobs markets
- Forecasting is genuinely hard. Payrolls regularly surprise economists, so respect the uncertainty and size positions accordingly.
- Revisions are large. Prior months are frequently revised, which matters for trend-based views.
- Resolution is clean. The market settles on the official BLS figure.
- Watch the unemployment rate too. The headline payrolls number and the rate can tell different stories in the same report.
The jobs number is one of the harder economic releases to predict, with sizeable surprises and revisions. Treat these markets with appropriate caution and stake only what you can afford to lose.
Related market guides
Trade adjacent categories with the same exchange account:
Frequently asked questions
Where can I trade jobs report prediction markets?
Kalshi is the leading regulated venue for payrolls and labour-market markets, settling on the official BLS report. Polymarket offers on-chain alternatives and Robinhood provides routed access through Kalshi.
What jobs markets can I trade?
Whether nonfarm payrolls land above or below a threshold, the unemployment rate within a range, average hourly earnings versus expectations, and band-based markets on the payrolls figure.
When is the jobs report released?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Employment Situation report monthly, usually on the first Friday, for the prior month. Jobs markets settle on that release.