Few scheduled events move global markets like a decision from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Prediction markets let you trade that outcome directly — whether the Federal Reserve raises, cuts or holds its target rate — with each contract settling cleanly on the official statement. This is one of the signature categories of regulated event trading.
What you can trade
- The next decision — will the Fed hike, cut or hold at the upcoming meeting, expressed as the target-rate range.
- The size of the move — a 25 basis-point change versus 50, when a move is expected.
- Year-end rate level — where the target rate lands by December, or how many cuts or hikes occur across the year.
- Policy tone — markets framed around the path of rates implied by the meeting and projections.
Where to trade Fed-rate markets
Any of the regulated platforms below is a solid home for this category; our full ranking is in the linked roundup.
Kalshi Editor's pick
The leading venue for Fed and rate markets, regulated by the CFTC with deep liquidity around every FOMC meeting.
Polymarket Crypto
Crypto-native macro markets with strong liquidity on rate decisions, settled on-chain.
Robinhood Low fees
Simple access to event contracts, with rate markets routed through Kalshi inside the app.
The FOMC calendar
The committee meets eight times a year, roughly every six weeks, and each meeting is the event the market resolves on. Liquidity builds in the days beforehand and settles the moment the statement is released, with the Chair’s press conference often moving the next meeting’s market. The key inputs traders watch between meetings are the inflation and jobs data, which shape expectations for the path of rates.
Tips for trading Fed-rate markets
- The consensus is usually priced in. When a hold is widely expected, the contract trades near 95¢ — the value is in correctly reading a surprise, not the obvious outcome.
- Watch the data, not the noise. Inflation and jobs prints move rate expectations more than commentary does.
- Resolution is clean. The market settles on the published statement, so there is little ambiguity once the decision lands.
- Mind the press conference. Forward guidance can swing later-meeting markets even when the current decision is as expected.
Because resolution is tied to an objective, scheduled data release, Fed-rate contracts carry far less resolution ambiguity than many other categories. When the statement lands, the market settles.
Related market guides
Trade adjacent categories with the same exchange account:
Frequently asked questions
Where can I trade Fed rate prediction markets?
Kalshi is the leading regulated venue for Fed and rate markets, with deep liquidity around each FOMC meeting. Polymarket offers crypto-native macro markets, and Robinhood provides simple access routed through Kalshi.
What Fed markets can I trade?
The next FOMC decision (hike, cut or hold as a target-rate range), the size of a move, the year-end rate level or number of cuts and hikes across the year, and markets framed around the path of policy.
How do Fed rate markets settle?
They resolve on the official FOMC statement at the scheduled meeting. Because the outcome is an objective, published decision, there is little resolution ambiguity once it is released.