Each month, the inflation print sets the tone for markets and shapes what the Federal Reserve does next. Prediction markets let you trade exactly where the Consumer Price Index (CPI) lands, with contracts settling on the official release. It is a clean, data-driven category that rewards a careful read of the numbers.
What you can trade
- The monthly print — whether headline or core CPI comes in above or below a stated threshold.
- Year-over-year rate — markets on the annual inflation rate falling within a particular range.
- Core vs headline — separate markets on core (excluding food and energy) and headline figures.
- The Fed’s preferred gauge — markets tied to the PCE price index alongside CPI.
Where to trade inflation markets
Any of the regulated platforms below is a solid home for this category; our full ranking is in the linked roundup.
Kalshi Editor's pick
The go-to regulated venue for CPI and inflation markets, settled on the official BLS release.
Polymarket Crypto
On-chain inflation markets with solid liquidity around each print.
Robinhood Low fees
Event contracts in a familiar app, with inflation markets routed through Kalshi.
The data calendar
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases CPI monthly, typically in the middle of the month, covering the prior month’s prices; the PCE index follows later in the month. Activity clusters in the run-up to each release and settles the instant the print lands. Inflation data is also a primary driver of Fed-rate expectations, so the two categories move together.
Tips for trading inflation markets
- Consensus is the anchor. The market prices the expected figure; your edge is in correctly anticipating a beat or miss versus consensus.
- Core tells the trend. Core CPI is often more informative about the underlying path than the noisier headline number.
- Resolution is objective. The market settles on the published BLS figure, so the outcome is unambiguous.
- Mind revisions and base effects. Year-over-year comparisons can swing on what happened a year earlier.
Like other data-release markets, CPI contracts settle on an official, scheduled number — removing the resolution ambiguity that softer categories can carry.
Related market guides
Trade adjacent categories with the same exchange account:
Frequently asked questions
Where can I trade CPI prediction markets?
Kalshi is the leading regulated venue for inflation and CPI markets, settling on the official BLS release. Polymarket offers on-chain alternatives, and Robinhood provides access routed through Kalshi.
What inflation markets can I trade?
Whether headline or core CPI lands above or below a threshold, the year-over-year rate falling in a range, separate core and headline markets, and markets tied to the Fed's preferred PCE gauge.
When is CPI released?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPI monthly, usually in the middle of the month, for the prior month's prices. Inflation markets settle on that official release.