Earnings season comes around every quarter, and prediction markets let you trade the results without taking a position in the stock itself. Because results are reported officially on a known schedule, earnings contracts settle cleanly on published figures. Here is what the category offers and how it differs from trading the shares.
What you can trade
- Beat or miss — whether reported earnings per share come in above or below the consensus estimate.
- Revenue thresholds — whether quarterly revenue exceeds a stated figure.
- Guidance — whether a company raises, holds or cuts its forward guidance.
- Stock reaction — whether the share price moves up or down by a set amount after the report.
Where to trade earnings markets
Any of the regulated platforms below is a solid home for this category; our full ranking is in the linked roundup.
Kalshi Editor's pick
Regulated markets on earnings outcomes, funded in dollars and settled on official company filings.
Robinhood Low fees
Trade earnings event contracts alongside the stocks you already follow, with low fees in one app.
Polymarket Crypto
Liquid markets on major-company earnings and reactions, settled on-chain.
How earnings markets settle
Contracts resolve on the official numbers in a company’s earnings release, or on the share-price move over a defined window, paying $1 or $0. The details to check are which metric and estimate the contract uses (GAAP versus adjusted, and whose consensus), and the exact window for any price-reaction market. These are distinct from options on the same stock: an earnings contract pays a fixed amount on a yes/no outcome, while an option’s value scales with the move — see prediction markets vs options.
Tips for trading earnings markets
- Know the estimate — a beat is relative to consensus, so the bar is the expectation, not the raw number.
- Reactions are noisy — stocks can fall on a beat or rise on a miss depending on guidance and positioning.
- Mind the metric — adjusted versus GAAP earnings can differ sharply; the contract specifies which.
- Liquidity clusters — activity peaks around each earnings date, then fades.
Availability varies by US state and is evolving — see are prediction markets legal? These are real-money contracts with real risk; trade responsibly and only stake what you can afford to lose.
Related market guides
Trade adjacent categories with the same exchange account:
Frequently asked questions
Where can I trade earnings prediction markets?
Kalshi offers regulated, dollar-funded earnings markets; Robinhood lets you trade them alongside stocks with low fees; and Polymarket has liquid markets on major-company results. See our best-platform ranking.
What earnings markets can I trade?
Whether a company beats or misses its EPS estimate, revenue thresholds, guidance changes, and how far the stock moves after the report.
How is this different from trading the stock?
An earnings contract pays a fixed $1 or $0 on a specific yes/no outcome, such as beating consensus, whereas buying the stock or an option gives you continuous exposure to the price. They are complementary approaches.