Company earnings are scheduled, high-stakes and intensely watched — which makes them a natural fit for prediction markets. Rather than trading the stock, you trade the outcome of the report: whether the company beats expectations, clears a revenue bar, or how its results land. Each contract settles on the official release.
What you can trade
- Beat or miss — whether earnings per share come in above or below consensus.
- Revenue — whether the top line clears a stated threshold.
- Guidance and reaction — markets on the outlook and on the stock’s move around results.
- Corporate events — completion of mergers and other dated company milestones.
Where to trade earnings markets
Any of the regulated platforms below is a solid home for this category; our full ranking is in the linked roundup.
Kalshi Editor's pick
Regulated markets on earnings and corporate events, settled on official filings.
Polymarket Crypto
On-chain markets on earnings and company events.
Robinhood Low fees
Simple access to event contracts via Kalshi.
How these markets price and resolve
The price is a probability and each contract settles at $1 or $0 on the official earnings release or filing. Because the figures are reported and audited, resolution is objective once the numbers are out. Activity clusters around the earnings calendar, with liquidity and price movement spiking in the run-up to a report and settling quickly afterward.
Tips for trading earnings markets
- Consensus is the anchor. The market prices the expected result; your edge is in reading a beat or miss versus the Street.
- Confirm the metric and period. EPS, revenue and guidance are different markets, as are different fiscal quarters.
- Clean, scheduled resolution. The report date is the event, and settlement follows the filing.
- Expect volatility around the print. Prices can move sharply as results and guidance land.
Because earnings are reported and audited, these markets settle on hard numbers — leaving little of the resolution ambiguity that softer categories can carry.
More earnings guides
Focused guides for specific earnings markets, each with the best platforms and how they settle:
Frequently asked questions
Where can I trade company earnings markets?
Kalshi offers regulated markets on earnings and corporate events, settled on official filings; Polymarket has on-chain alternatives; and Robinhood provides simple access via Kalshi.
What earnings markets can I trade?
Whether earnings per share beat or miss consensus, whether revenue clears a threshold, guidance and stock-reaction markets, and corporate events such as merger completions.
How do earnings markets resolve?
They settle at $1 or $0 on the official earnings release or filing. Because the figures are reported and audited, resolution is objective once the numbers are published.