Prediction markets are legal and regulated in the United States, but the picture elsewhere is a patchwork — and in 2026 it has been moving fast, almost entirely toward more restriction. This page summarises where the two dominant platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, can and cannot be used around the world, and why. For three major markets we have dedicated guides: the UK, Canada and Australia.
Rules and enforcement change quickly; confirm the current position directly with the platform — and, where it matters, a qualified professional — before acting.
The global picture
By its own published figures, Kalshi is available in around 143 countries and restricted in 52; Polymarket restricts a number of major markets including the US, UK, France, Germany, Australia, Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands. The widely quoted “33 countries banned” figure is misleading, because most of those are under US sanctions rather than specific prediction-market bans. What is real is a wave of direct government action in 2026.
The 2026 restriction wave
More than ten governments have now directly restricted or blocked at least one of the two platforms, with the justification almost identical each time: prediction markets are gambling, gambling requires a licence, and neither platform holds one locally.
- Spain — ordered ISPs to block both platforms on 26 May 2026, pending disciplinary proceedings.
- India — classified prediction markets as prohibited online money gaming under the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025, in force from 1 May 2026.
- Indonesia — moved against Polymarket in May 2026, holding that blockchain-based wagering is still gambling.
- Argentina (March) and Brazil (April) — ordered blocks.
- Portugal and Hungary — acted in January 2026.
- Singapore — the Gambling Regulatory Authority classified Polymarket as unlawful and blocked it from 12 January 2025.
- Netherlands — the KSA ordered Polymarket to stop offering services in February 2026.
- New Zealand — the Department of Internal Affairs classifies the platforms as gambling under current law.
- Germany — Polymarket is close-only (existing positions can be settled but no new trades); Kalshi blocks German residents.
- Italy, Switzerland, Poland — access is blocked or close-only.
A few countries sit in between: Denmark, for instance, does not block the platforms unless there is clear evidence they are targeting the local market with local payment methods or currency.
The common thread
Almost every restriction rests on the same reasoning: an event contract that settles $1 or $0 on a real-world outcome meets the local definition of betting or a game of chance, and offering it without a gambling (or, in some places, financial) licence is unlawful. Because most countries have no dedicated regulatory category for prediction markets, they default to existing gambling law — and that almost always means the platforms cannot operate. The US, where the CFTC regulates them as financial products, remains the notable exception; see are prediction markets legal? for the US position.
By region
Europe is tightening quickly (Spain, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Poland, Portugal, Hungary), with the UK regulating via gambling licences. Asia-Pacific is largely closed (India, Indonesia, Singapore, New Zealand, Australia). The Americas are mixed: regulated and growing in the US, restricted in Canada with a narrow domestic route emerging, and blocked in Argentina and Brazil. Always confirm the current position for your own country directly with the platform before assuming access.
Frequently asked questions
Where are prediction markets legal?
They are legal and regulated in the United States under the CFTC. Elsewhere the picture varies widely: Kalshi reports availability in around 143 countries, but more than ten governments have restricted or blocked the major platforms, usually by classifying them as unlicensed gambling.
Why are so many countries banning prediction markets?
The common reasoning is that an event contract paying $1 or $0 meets the local definition of betting, and offering it without a gambling licence is unlawful. Most countries have no dedicated category for prediction markets, so they apply existing gambling law.
Which countries restricted prediction markets in 2026?
Among others, Spain, India, Indonesia, Argentina, Brazil, Portugal and Hungary all acted in 2025-2026, joining earlier actions by Singapore, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Germany. The list continues to grow.