For UK residents the picture is clear but restrictive: the two biggest names in the category — Kalshi and Polymarket — are not available to UK retail users, and that is unlikely to change soon. This is not an accident of geography but the result of two separate pieces of UK regulation. The good news is that UK-licensed alternatives offer much of the same experience. Here is the full position as of mid-2026.
Rules and enforcement change quickly; confirm the current position directly with the platform — and, where it matters, a qualified professional — before acting.
At a glance
- Kalshi — not available to UK users; the UK was excluded from its 143-country international rollout.
- Polymarket — geoblocks UK IP addresses; holds no UK licence.
- Why — the FCA’s retail ban on binary options, plus the Gambling Commission classifying prediction markets as “betting intermediaries”.
- Tax — HMRC treats crypto and USDC gains as capital gains, not tax-free betting winnings.
- Legal to use? — UK-licensed exchanges are; foreign unlicensed platforms are not available and carry no UK consumer protection.
Why Kalshi and Polymarket aren’t available
Two regulatory walls block US-style prediction markets in Britain, and an operator has to clear both.
1. The FCA’s binary options ban. On 2 April 2019, under Policy Statement PS19/11, the Financial Conduct Authority permanently banned the sale, marketing and distribution of binary options to retail consumers, calling them “gambling products dressed up as financial instruments”. A prediction-market contract that settles at either $1 or $0 on an outcome is, structurally, a binary option — so it falls squarely inside that ban.
2. The Gambling Commission’s classification. Separately, the UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) regulates gambling. In a position it formalised in a February 2026 statement, the Commission’s view is that a prediction-market operator would generally fall within the definition of a “betting intermediary” under the Gambling Act 2005 — the same category as a betting exchange — and would therefore need a UKGC licence to serve British consumers.
Neither platform holds the required UK permissions. Kalshi excluded the UK from its expansion; Polymarket geoblocks UK IP addresses in response to the Commission’s warning that unlicensed operators must not target Great Britain. For the broader legal grounding, see are prediction markets legal?
What UK users can use instead
Britain has a mature, regulated market for exactly this kind of trading — it simply sits under the Gambling Commission rather than a financial regulator.
- Betfair Exchange — the original event exchange, running on back-and-lay principles since 2000, covering politics, sports and specials. Betfair has been trialling a dedicated “Betfair Predicts” interface.
- Smarkets — a UKGC-licensed betting exchange with low commission across sports, politics and news.
- Matchbook — launched Matchbook Predictions in January 2026, the first UK platform offering US-style Yes/No contracts priced between 1 and 99 pence, under its existing exchange licence.
- Spreadex — offers sports spread betting and fixed-odds markets.
Robinhood, which offers event contracts in the US, has been in talks with the FCA about a UK launch, so the options may widen.
What about using a VPN?
It is technically possible to reach Polymarket with a VPN and a self-custodied wallet, but it is a poor idea. It breaches the platform’s terms of service, strips away every consumer protection (there is no UK route to recover funds), and does not remove your tax obligations — HMRC treats USDC and crypto gains as capital assets subject to Capital Gains Tax, not exempt betting winnings. The absence of prosecutions of individual users is not the same as permission. For UK residents, a licensed exchange is the sensible route.
The outlook
The direction of travel in 2026 is toward clearer regulation rather than open access. The UKGC appears content to regulate prediction markets within the existing betting-intermediary framework, and whether the FCA carves event contracts out of its binary-options ban remains an open question with no public sign of movement. For now, expect UK-licensed exchanges to be how British users trade event markets. See how the rest of the world compares in our prediction markets by country guide.
Frequently asked questions
Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
Polymarket is not available to UK users: it geoblocks UK IP addresses and holds no UK Gambling Commission licence. Its binary-outcome contracts also fall within the FCA’s retail ban on binary options. Accessing it via a VPN breaches its terms and offers no UK consumer protection.
Can I use Kalshi in the UK?
No. Kalshi serves US residents and excluded the UK from its international rollout, so UK users cannot open an account. It is a CFTC-regulated US exchange with no UK permissions.
What can UK residents use instead?
UK-licensed exchanges such as Betfair, Smarkets and Matchbook — the last of which launched a dedicated Yes/No predictions product in 2026. These are regulated by the Gambling Commission and offer similar event trading with UK consumer protection.