Prediction markets sit in a genuinely awkward spot in Canada. The big US platforms — Kalshi and Polymarket — are restricted, because gambling is tightly controlled and securities regulators have already acted against one of them. But 2026 has brought the first regulated domestic route to market. Here is the position as of mid-2026.
Rules and enforcement change quickly; confirm the current position directly with the platform — and, where it matters, a qualified professional — before acting.
At a glance
- Kalshi — lists Canada among its restricted jurisdictions.
- Polymarket — restricted; the Ontario Securities Commission settled with Polymarket’s operators in April 2025 (a two-year Ontario capital-markets ban and over $200,000 in penalties for breaching National Instrument 91-102).
- Emerging route — the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) has approved prediction-market trading, but only for economic indicators, financial markets and climate — not sports, elections or pop culture.
- Coming — Wealthsimple is beta-testing “Wealthsimple Predict”, offering roughly 4,000 Kalshi contracts in the approved categories, expected summer 2026.
Why the big platforms are restricted
In Canada, gambling is prohibited under the Criminal Code except where a province authorises and conducts it, so wagering on uncertain events is generally unlawful unless it runs through a provincial framework. On top of that, Canadian securities regulators treat crypto-based prediction contracts offered to residents as regulated products. The clearest signal is the Ontario Securities Commission’s 2025 settlement with Polymarket’s operators — a two-year ban and financial penalties for offering the product to Ontario investors between 2020 and 2023. Kalshi, for its part, simply lists Canada among the jurisdictions where it does not operate.
The regulated route: CIRO and Wealthsimple Predict
The breakthrough is a narrow one. CIRO has approved prediction-market trading for Canadian retail investors, but only in specific categories — economic indicators, financial markets and climate. Sports, elections and pop-culture markets, which drive most of the volume on Kalshi and Polymarket, remain off the table. Wealthsimple, the Toronto-based investing app, is beta-testing Wealthsimple Predict, which will give clients access to around 4,000 Kalshi contracts within those approved categories, expected to launch in summer 2026. It is a real, regulated way in — just a far narrower one than US traders enjoy.
Using a VPN
Canadians can technically reach Polymarket via a VPN and a crypto wallet, but the same warnings apply as everywhere: it breaks platform terms, offers no regulatory protection or recourse, and does not change your tax position. With a licensed domestic route now emerging, it is hard to justify.
The outlook
Barring reform, US-style prediction markets will keep expanding under financial regulation while Canada limits access to provincially sanctioned betting plus the narrow CIRO-approved categories. Analysts note the realistic path to a broader market is a large operator applying to provincial securities regulators for an exemption from National Instrument 91-102. See how other countries compare in our prediction markets by country guide.
Frequently asked questions
Is Polymarket legal in Canada?
Polymarket is restricted in Canada, and the Ontario Securities Commission settled enforcement action against its operators in 2025, including a two-year Ontario ban and financial penalties. It is not available through normal access.
Can Canadians use Kalshi?
Not directly — Kalshi lists Canada among its restricted jurisdictions. However, Wealthsimple’s forthcoming “Predict” app will offer access to a subset of Kalshi contracts (economic, financial and climate markets only) through a CIRO-approved route.
What prediction markets are allowed in Canada?
Only a narrow set: CIRO has approved event contracts on economic indicators, financial markets and climate — not sports, elections or pop culture. Wealthsimple Predict is the first consumer product built around that approval.