Serious traders keep records, and casual ones usually do not — which is a large part of why the two get different results. A simple, honest log of your trades turns vague impressions (“I think I do well on economics markets”) into measurable facts, and it is the only way to know whether your results come from genuine skill or a run of luck.
Why track your trades
Three reasons. It lets you measure your real edge rather than guess at it. It reveals your leaks — the categories or habits that quietly lose money. And it keeps you ready for tax time, since you will need records of your activity anyway (see our guide to prediction-market taxes). None of this requires anything fancier than a spreadsheet.
What to record
For every trade, note the essentials: the market, the side you took, the price, the size, the date, a one-line thesis (why you took it), and, once resolved, the outcome, your profit or loss, and any fees. The thesis is the part most people skip and the part that teaches you the most — it lets you review not just whether you won, but whether your reasoning was sound.
Measuring your edge
With a log in hand, you can measure what matters: your win rate versus the break-even rate your prices required (the break-even calculator helps here), your return on investment, and — the real test — your calibration: did the things you priced at 70% actually happen about 70% of the time? Breaking results down by category shows where your edge is real and where it is imagined.
Reviewing and improving
Records are only useful if you act on them. Review periodically, cut or shrink the categories that consistently lose, double down on your genuine strengths, and check whether your discipline is holding. This feedback loop — record, measure, review, adjust — is how good traders compound their edge over time, and it pairs naturally with sound risk management.
Related strategies
Build on this approach with the adjacent playbooks:
Frequently asked questions
Why should I keep records of my trades?
To measure your real edge instead of guessing, to find the categories and habits that quietly lose money, and to stay ready for tax time. A simple spreadsheet is enough, and the discipline of logging trades tends to improve them.
What should I track for each trade?
The market, the side, the price, the size, the date, a one-line thesis for why you took it, and once resolved, the outcome, profit or loss, and fees. The thesis is the most valuable field, because it lets you review your reasoning, not just your results.
How do I know if I actually have an edge?
Compare your win rate with the break-even rate your prices required, track your ROI, and check your calibration — whether outcomes you priced at 70% happened about 70% of the time. Breaking it down by category shows where your edge is genuine.