Break-Even Win Rate Calculator

Why the price is your break-even win rate

A contract that costs 60¢ pays $1, so over many trades you break even only if it wins 60% of the time — the price is the break-even win rate. Add a per-contract fee and the bar rises slightly: a 1¢ fee on a 60¢ contract means you need to win about 61% of the time. Flip it around and the same logic tells you the highest price worth paying: if you believe your side wins 65% of the time, any price above 65¢ (before fees) is a losing proposition over the long run.

Turning it into an edge

Your edge is the gap between your estimated win rate and the break-even rate. A positive edge means the trade is favourable; a negative one means you should pass, however appealing it looks. The hard part, of course, is estimating your true win rate honestly — see how to find value for where a real edge comes from, and common mistakes for how overconfidence erodes it. Once you have an edge, size it with the Kelly calculator.

More calculators

Pair this tool with the others in the kit:

Frequently asked questions

What is a break-even win rate?

It is how often your side must win for you to break even, and it equals the contract price as a percentage. A 60-cent contract needs to win 60% of the time, because it costs 60 cents to earn a possible $1.

How do fees affect break-even?

A per-contract fee raises the break-even win rate slightly. A 1-cent fee on a 60-cent contract lifts the requirement to about 61%. For active traders, that small increase compounds across many trades.

What win rate do I need to profit?

You need to win more often than the break-even rate. Your edge is the gap between your estimated win rate and that break-even figure — a positive edge means the trade is favourable over the long run.