Earnings season arrives four times a year with the reliability of a timetable: reporting begins a week or two after each calendar quarter closes — mid-January, mid-April, mid-July, mid-October — and runs about six weeks as the bulk of large-cap companies publish results. For prediction-market traders it is the densest stretch of resolvable, data-rich events on the calendar, and our company-earnings markets guide covers what gets listed. This page covers how to trade it.
What the contract actually is
An earnings contract asks a precise question: will the company’s reported earnings per share (or revenue) clear a stated threshold — usually the analyst consensus. It resolves against the official release. That precision is the appeal. Equity traders must guess both the number and the market’s reaction to it; an event contract pays on the number alone. The famous frustration of “beat earnings, stock fell anyway” simply does not apply — which makes earnings contracts the cleaner instrument for a pure forecast, as our comparison of markets versus stocks explains.
The season’s rhythm
| Window | Who reports | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Week 1–2 | Big banks open the season | Their results set the macro tone every later market trades against |
| Week 3–4 | Big tech and the megacaps | The deepest, most liquid contracts of the season — and the most efficient |
| Week 5–6 | The long tail | Thinner coverage and thinner analysis — where preparation is most likely to be paid |
Where the edge is
Consensus numbers are public, so the edge is rarely in knowing them — it is in the pattern around them. Companies manage expectations, and most large caps beat the consensus more often than they miss; check whether the contract price actually reflects a given company’s beat history before assuming 50/50. Guidance quarters and companies mid-turnaround resolve less predictably — that is where markets misprice. And read the sequence: by the time a sector’s third company reports, its peers’ results have already told you most of the story, an edge our finding-value guide generalises. Expected value discipline applies as everywhere — run entries through the EV calculator rather than trading the narrative.
Earnings markets sit alongside the broader economics category, and platform choice matters less here than depth — the 2026 rankings note which venues carry serious earnings books.
Go deeper
These guides cover the evidence, the tooling and the timing behind serious trading:
Frequently asked questions
When is earnings season?
Four times a year, starting a week or two after each quarter ends: mid-January, mid-April, mid-July and mid-October, each running roughly six weeks as most large companies report.
How do earnings prediction markets resolve?
Against the company's officially reported figures — typically whether reported EPS or revenue beats the stated consensus threshold in the contract. The official release is the resolution source, not previews or whispers.
Why do stocks fall on earnings beats?
Share prices move on results versus expectations already priced in, plus guidance about the future. An earnings contract pays on the reported number itself — which is precisely what makes it a cleaner trade than the stock reaction.